The Times' latest generic-ballot poll shows Democrats up 8 among likely voters, against an even presidential race in 2024. That 8-point national move is not spread evenly: Hispanic voters move 33 points, voters under 30 move 23, voters over 65 move 2. This applies each group's swing to each state's electorate and compares the result to a plain uniform swing.
Click any state. Region: West
How each dimension pushes this state away from the national swing, in points
| State | 2024 | Swing | 2026 model | Baseline | Diff | White | Hispanic | Black | B.A.+ | 65+ |
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Every state starts at its 2024 presidential margin. Four demographic dimensions from the Times table — race and ethnicity, age, education, and census region — are each applied to the state's estimated 2024 electorate, producing four implied swings. Those are combined using the weights above, then the whole map is shifted so the turnout-weighted national figure matches the generic ballot.
The dimensions overlap, so they are averaged rather than stacked. Stacking them would count the same Hispanic non-college voter three times and produce swings twice as large as the poll supports.
The baseline view adds the same national swing to every state. It is the null hypothesis: if the composition of the electorate carried no information, the two maps would be identical. The fourth view shows the gap between them, which is where the model is actually making a claim.